Investment to be rational decision-making thin film solar cells
Solar photovoltaic power generation in the near future not only to replace part of conventional energy sources, and will become the world's main energy supply, energy development will bring about revolutionary change. Joint Commission of the European Research Centre (JRC) has forecast that 21st century, renewable energy in the energy structure will account for 80% or more, which accounted for more than 60% of solar power, fully demonstrating its important strategic position.
Domestic and foreign markets will be substantial growth in the long-term
The international financial crisis, national efforts to cut government subsidies, credit policy contraction is expected the next two years will be the world's new PV capacity growth has slowed. According to Display bank's latest forecast by the world economic downturn, demand reduction, the investment slowdown, the next two years, the global PV market size and growth rate were lower than previously forecast, but the PV industry as a future energy industry development The main trend has not changed. After 2011, growth will accelerate PV market, the annual compound growth rate of more than 60% of the expected market demand in 2013 will reach 37GW. Including Germany, Spain, the United States, Italy and Japan will remain the combined share of 85% or more, still the major demand areas.
According to the National Center for Photovoltaic forecasts to 2020 the total installed capacity will reach the global PV 70GW, that the world photovoltaic industry has broad market space. 2020, PV costs can be reduced to 10 cents less per kilowatt hour, almost the entire electricity market are competitive. With the reduced cost of solar cells, MW PV power station level will continue to appear.
After 2030, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will continue to decrease, the battery will further increase the conversion efficiency, photovoltaic system components will be developed into a common building components, can achieve large-scale standardized application, almost all new construction will be installation of light V array. The EU hopes to install in 2030 increased to 200GW of photovoltaic power generation equipment around the world may reach 1000GW.
According to statistics, by 2002 the domestic photovoltaic power generation capacity has been hovering at around 5MW. 2002 to 2004, the domestic PV market to rise significantly. 2008 to 2050MW of solar cell production jumped first in the world, but the capacity is only 20MW, manufacture of solar cells in China almost all exports. Estimated that in 2008 China's total installed capacity to 115MW. PV applications in China is still dominated by independent system, the proportion of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation applications also very small.
Energy production and consumption in China is a big country with rapid economic growth and the acceleration of industrialization, China's rapid growth in electricity demand. According to the China Electric Power Research Institute predicts that by 2010 China's electric power supply gap is 52.9GW, accounting for 7.7% of demand; 2020 to 91GW, accounting for 8.2%. Shows the growing needs of the domestic electricity market applications for the development of PV industry provides a strong support. National Development and Reform Commission in 2010 the cumulative installed PV modules and systems 450MW target. Expected installed capacity of solar photovoltaic 2008-2010 the average annual compound growth rate of 80.86%. By 2020, China's total installed capacity of PV will reach 1.8GW.
TFS features and investment trends
TFS (thin film solar cells) lower cost, increasing conversion rates, cost-effective medium, has a broad application space. From 2008 to 2013, average annual growth rate of thin-film solar cell market up to 67%, to 2013 the annual output reached 10GW, accounting for the overall solar cell market more than 20%, which is still the mainstream of amorphous silicon thin film solar cell products.
August 2008, Fujitsu announced the economy of solar global market survey, thin film silicon solar cell market in 2007 were 578 billion yen. 2012 will increase to 9.7 times in 2007, reaching 559.5 billion yen. As thin film solar cells of low prices of raw materials, manufacturing processes less so in the future is expected to significantly reduce costs.
Global manufacturer of silicon thin film solar cells are Sharp, United Solar, Bangkok Solar, Japan Kaneka Hybrid, Sunfilm, Malibu, Yutong light and so on. In 2008 the world production of silicon thin film solar cells is expected to 585MW, 2009 will grow to 1104MW, a growth rate of 88.7%.
Industry analysts and many experts have pointed out that thin film solar cell in the next 5-10 years will be about 50% average annual rate of growth in the rapidly growing solar cell industry in the overall champion. But in the silicon thin film solar cell industry must also insight into their risk. In addition to market, cost, technology risk, financing needs, supply chain organization, production and technical talent power supply has a higher threshold.
Demand in the capital, a 40MW-50MW of amorphous silicon thin film battery production facilities total investment of 10 billion yuan, while the economies of scale should be recognized 300MW-500MW. An annual capacity of 300MW plant, covers an area of 20 square meters, total investment of about 35 million.
In the supply chain organizations, products needed for the production of high light transmission rate of ultra-white glass (or coated with a transparent conductive film of the TCO glass), high purity silane, PVB film, have only limited sources of supply. How to get stable and cheap source of material, but also the main challenges facing investors.
Technical personnel has been a bottleneck in the development of thin film solar cells is one. In addition to the battery itself, structural design, analysis and detection requires a lot of professionals, the chemical vapor deposition (CVD), vacuum sputtering, laser engraved lines, and special techniques, and includes a variety of specialty gases, high water, clean air facility support systems, etc. system, require a lot of professional background and practical experience of the staff. And because a large number of projects currently under construction, competition for talent has become fiercer than ever before.
In short, each of which want to join a comprehensive analysis of their business should the opportunities and challenges faced by a rational and objective way to make their own investment decisions.
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