5 trillion stimulus to guard against the new energy industry overcapacity
Industrial development in China's history, "step forward" and "excess capacity" is always go hand in hand, will invest in the next 10 years, five trillion yuan effort to develop the emerging energy industry has been true. Restructuring of the national economic restructuring, development of low environmental-friendly industry in the context of the prospects of new energy industry is looking on. However, how to balance "speed" and "quality" of the relationship between, it has been a problem.
Policy: the emerging energy industry planning has basically taken shape
Economic situation in the first half of the national energy conference, the National Energy Board Planning Division, said Jiang Bing, the emerging energy industry planning has become a mature manuscript, is preparing to report the State Council. The plan proposes that, from 2011 to 2020, will increase total investment of 500 billion yuan, 1.5 trillion annual output value will increase.
Familiar with the previous "new energy plan" is different from the National Energy Board will be planning the final name as "emerging energy industry planning." Jiang Bing explained that the plan includes not only wind energy, hydropower and nuclear power, including the upgrade of traditional energy sources.
Planning, not only includes the advanced nuclear power, wind, solar and biomass energy resources in these new development and utilization of traditional energy sources will also be important to upgrade the first change, including clean coal, smart grid, distributed energy, new car energy and other industrial application of technology specific implementation of the path, the scale of development and major policy initiatives. In order to achieve non-fossil energy sources by 2020 target of 15%, the size of nuclear power to at least reach 75 million kilowatts, while the hydropower installed capacity will have reached 380 million kilowatts, of which 330 million planned for conventional hydropower, 050 million plan to build can plant. The use of other biomass should scale more than 2.4 million tons of coal.
River ice, and now has become more perfect and mature planning, preparations are being submitted to the State Council in accordance with the procedures for approval. According to preliminary estimates, the plan implemented in 2020 will greatly reduce the excessive dependence on coal demand, can reduce sulfur dioxide emissions that year about 780 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by the year about 12 million tons. Planning period to increase accumulated direct investment of 500 billion yuan, an annual increase of output value of 1.5 trillion yuan.
Back in September last year, President Hu Jintao at the UN summit on climate change proposed for 2020 non-fossil energy accounts for a proportion of total energy consumption about 15%. In December, Premier Wen Jiabao climate change conference in Copenhagen announced to the world by 2020, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP decreased 40-45% compared to 2005. Building low-carbon society, development of new energy is the trend, but also a long-term future of China's basic national policy, in order to achieve a solemn commitment to China's foreign, National Energy Board is organizing the units to "five" energy plan for the work, its emphasis will focus on the development of the proportion of non-fossil energy and carbon emission reduction to start two goals.
According to preliminary calculations, the planning period increased the cumulative direct investment of 500 billion yuan, an annual increase of output value of 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 15 million jobs in the community. So the next 10 years energy industry will enter a new stage of rapid development, room to grow quite broad, and likely the birth of a large number of new blue-chip, high-growth stocks in the future one of the main areas.
Problem: both "big step forward" and avoid "excess"
In policy and market the "double-sided optimistic", the new energy industry seems to deviate from the explosive growth in a predetermined orbit. Industrial development in China's history, "step forward" and "excess capacity" is always go hand in hand, how to balance the relationship between, it has been a problem.
Statistics show that currently there are 18 provinces and cities have been put forward to build a new energy base, or the new energy as a pillar industry to develop, this rush to develop not only a waste, it will also affect the orderly development of the entire industry. When the whole world for the layout of the new energy and renewable energy industry around the corner, puffed up with pride when there is a sound not be ignored: "No rules can not be into the surrounding area, the blind expansion of the momentum must be vigilant."
Now, the rapid development of China's new energy industry, individual industries and even a "blowout" of the momentum. Statistics show that China's PV industry annual growth rate of the past five years nearly 150% growth in wind power is doubled. As of 2008, China is the world's largest producer of solar photovoltaic cells, the fourth wind power country. But this "prosperity" hidden under there: some local governments and enterprises blindly launched a new energy projects, or duplicate construction industry chain, resulting in some of the industry has just started, had already appeared or blindly follow the trend of unbalanced development of the precursor.
China Investment Advisory Network issued a report, to wind power, for example, as of 2008, China's total installed wind power capacity of 12.2 million kilowatts, and total network capacity compared to 894 million kilowatts, which means that nearly 28% of at least wind power equipment has been built to be idle. This is reminiscent of recent years in China, including steel, cement, coal and other traditional industries to expand and adjust the capacity of the blind structure of the facts.
In fact, a simple high productivity is pretty harmless, but more serious problem is the production capacity over the remaining hidden in some production processes are often not high-tech, simple process repeated and so on, which means high-speed operation of the machine not only failed to produce more profits, but consumes a lot of production. If a bear new economic growth point of the industry, launched the beginning of the hidden from the low-level redundant construction and overcapacity in the shadow of the new industries to take off the way it is set back a huge regret.
China's National Energy Board of new and renewable energy Shi Lishan, deputy director of the wind power plant in Jiangsu Province recently research pointed out that China and other new wind power and solar energy in recent years, rapid development in production, but still the corresponding grid construction to be improved, from the rational allocation of production and use is still some distance.
In fact, many of the key components of new energy production technologies still rely on imports, and these techniques have been the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries a few companies a monopoly. For example, the absence of core technologies, domestic enterprises can only be in the lower reaches of the solar cell, battery components and other aspects of production. In China, the so-called polycrystalline silicon and other new energy industry, but it is still in the low-tech, low-level redundant construction phase, in the downstream industry chain.
Distribution: one-fifth of investment in the auto industry
Institute of brokerage analysts believe that additional 5 trillion of the huge investment in new energy industries, is expected to have at least 1 trillion will be allocated to the new energy vehicles, but this time in addition to the vehicle, the battery to power the core a very optimistic about the auto parts industry, a segment of industry.
"The battery is new energy automotive industry chain, the most important and most valuable part of an investment." Hongyuan Securities analyst Wang Jing said. Battery is the core of new energy vehicles, the most critical components, as predicted lithium-ion batteries will soon become a mainstream alternative to nickel-hydrogen batteries power batteries, lithium batteries power the new energy vehicles for demand-pull as the brightest body focus. Clearly, the lithium-ion battery, motor, electronic control and other related industrial chain of electric car companies will face even greater opportunities for development.
Zhang Xiaoyu, chairman of China Society of Automotive Engineers introduced, the current electric cars are the development of new energy vehicles subject, and key technologies of electric vehicles, including batteries, motors and electronic control of three parts, which is the most central parts of the battery. In these areas are under development in our country, not to the industrialization phase. Unfortunately, however, the current core component of our battery positive and battery separator, 80% are imported.
He said the battery's high import rate of the core components to the development of new energy vehicles in China has sounded the alarm. China is the world's most resource-rich countries of lithium, with the development of battery power resources. Happily, our country has begun to attach importance to the development of battery power, especially in battery-based technology investment and increasing common.
China FAW Technology Center director, said Li Jun, the Chinese government's investment in electric vehicles is very large, and very seriously. New energy vehicles or electric vehicles can not solve China's pollution problem locally, even if electricity is sent to the coal, not the low-carbon economy, but after all it is local, it can solve the pollution problem, can solve the problem of energy transport . But the future is not very large as an industrial leap, this also depends on our own for the automotive industry technology level of certainty.
Interpretation: "5 trillion" and "4000000000000" What is the difference
5 trillion! Is indeed an exciting figure, less than the financial crisis, "2009 economic stimulus package of 4 trillion" even more. Well, this 5 trillion of new energy industry planning in the end mean? And 4 trillion industry stimulus plan different?
The industry believes that this "5 trillion," and 2009 "4000000000000" is quite different. Market analysis, the "5 trillion," focuses on long-term effects of new energy investment, short-term stimulus to economic growth is far less effect in 2009, "4000000000000", so the stock market response is not so strong.
From 5 trillion of new energy investment planning time point of view, across from 2011 to 2020, span the time period of up to 10 years. Equally to the annual capital investment of far less intensity, "4 trillion." Meanwhile, the "5 trillion," a state for the new long-term energy sector development plan, not the immediate macroeconomic stimulus.
Dean of Economics, Fudan University, Professor Sun Lijian that China should seize the new round of global industrial restructuring opportunities, the initiative to a new industrial restructuring, including new energy, low-carbon economy, the concept of the industrial environment. In addition, China's foreign trade should be guided, for industrial upgrading. Exports, to encourage high value-added exports.
The point and purpose of the policy implementation is different from 4 trillion in 2009, is introduced in the international financial crisis, designed to rapidly stimulate the economic recovery has stabilized, inhibited macro-economic decline. The 5 trillion of new energy investment plan in the economic recovery trend has been set, enter the security macroeconomic growth, structural adjustment and development stage, are long-term economic structural adjustment range.
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